The tide matters more than the swimmer
Richard credits a saying to Warren Buffett: sometimes the tide matters more than the swimmer. He used it twice at Family Office Club's 2026 events. The point is that the direction of your market can matter more than how hard you work.
The Michael Phelps picture
Richard's example is easy to remember. Put the worst swimmer in the room in a river going downstream. Put Michael Phelps in the same river going upstream. The weak swimmer can flail and still move faster.
Find the tide, then be different
Richard told the story of a sponsor at the $100 million summit. He studied what investors wanted and saw demand for income and credit. Plain credit looked crowded, so he designed his own angle. He financed inventory for companies with tens of millions or more in revenue and added insurance against lost inventory. Richard says he raised over $500 million for it in a few years.
Hard work is not the same as value
Richard also made a sharper point. Many valuable things take hard work, but not everything that takes hard work is valuable. If three to seven things are growing in your industry, spotting them may be one of the most important things you do.
In Richard's words
"Warren Buffett has a couple sayings. He says that sometimes the tide matters more than the swimmer." (Richard C. Wilson, 2026 Family Office Club event)
"So that was a super interesting, like, he was looking at the tide, but not copying everyone else." (2026 Family Office Club event)
"You could swim faster than Michael Phelps if he's swimming up the Amazon River and you're swimming down" (2026 Family Office Club event)
How to use this
- List the three to seven trends growing in your industry and with your investors.
- Pick one you can serve, then find an angle nobody else is using.
- Check where effort is going. Hard work on a shrinking market is still a shrinking market.
- Review the list each year. Tides change.
Questions and answers
What does the tide matters more than the swimmer mean?
The direction of your market or industry can matter more than your own skill or effort.
Who said it?
Richard C. Wilson credits the saying to Warren Buffett in his talks.
Should you just follow the trend?
No. Richard's example sponsor followed the demand for credit but built a unique product inside it. He did not copy others.
How much did that sponsor raise?
Richard says over $500 million in just a few years.